When I first became a baseball fan as a young boy in the New York area, my father and I were die-hard fans of the Brooklyn Dodgers. (Was there any other type of Dodgers fan in those days?)This was during the early 1950s, when the Bums fielded one of the greatest teams in the history of the game. There was no such thing as free agency then, so core teams were together for many years. From 1947 to 1956, the Dodgers dominated the National League, appearing in six World Series.
Unfortunately, while the Dodgers were a great team, the New York Yankees, who dominated the American League, were even better. During the same period of time, the hated Yankees appeared in eight World Series, winning seven of them, including a record five straight (1949 through 1953).
For the die-hard Dodgers fan, the rallying cry was always "Wait 'Till Next Year!" "Next Year" didn't arrive until 1955, when the team finally beat the Yankees in the World Series.
Today's Washington Nationals fans--and I am one of them--could very well take up that rallying cry, but for a very different reason. Since Davey Johnson took over as manager, the team has made dramatic improvements, and I'm confident that 2012 will be a turning point for the Nationals. I don't expect them to make the playoffs next year, but I fully expect them to finally have a winning season. I watched almost every game that they played in September, when Stephan Strasburg returned and the roster was expanded with the September call-ups, and I was very encouraged by what I saw.
During last year's off-season, General Manager Mike Rizzo was criticized for letting Adam Dunn get away. Dunn's power numbers were outstanding, but he was a definite liability defensively. His replacement, Adam LaRoche, was lost for almost the entire season and the jury is still out on the Jayson Werth signing.
Happily, it turned out that the power hitter and good first baseman that the Nats needed was already on the roster. Mike Morse had a breakout year with his bat and played an above-average first base until Chris Marrero took over the position in September and Morse was moved to the outfield. If LaRoche returns to form in the spring, the Nats will have three above-average defensive first basemen. If that happens, my recommendation would be to trade LaRoche, who will be a free agent at the end of the 2012 season. Chris Marrero has proved that he is a major-league first baseman, and he will be a starter for some big-league team next year. Hopefully it will be the Nats. Morse will learn to play left field as well as he played first base.
The infield already looks solid. The Fielding Bible has rated Ryan Zimmerman as the second-best third baseman in the majors, and even though he had an off year at the bat in 2011, he's still one of the most dangerous hitters around. Ian Desmond has cut down on the number of errors at shortstop and developed into a good leadoff hitter. Danny Espinosa looks like a future All-Star at second base, and with either Morse or Marrero at first base, the other three infielders will be able to take risks that they couldn't with Adam Dunn.
The outfield, with Morse in left, Rick Ankiel in center, and Werth in right, should be at least average defensively, and better than average where Ankiel is concerned. Behind the plate, Wilson Ramos may not be another Ivan Rodriguez, but he's great at blocking pitches in the dirt. The most important measure of a catcher's ability, of course, is how he handles pitchers, and the pitching in September was excellent.
That pitching is the main reason why I believe the Nats will have a breakout year in 2012. I have to credit pitching coach Steve McCatty because I saw consistent similar approaches from not only Strasburg but also September call-ups Brad Peacock and Tom Milone, as well as almost everyone in the bullpen. Obviously McCatty has convinced the pitching staff to buy into his approach. If Peacock and Milone continue to pitch well in 2012, after the league figures them out, the Nats should have a solid starting rotation.
Strasburg was a thrower in 2010 but came back as a pitcher in 2011. Peacock and Milone looked to be almost as good as Strasburg. This is what I saw consistently from these three young pitchers:
* They three first-pitch strikes, which Jim Palmer calls the best pitch in baseball. All three pitchers attacked the batters. I saw first-pitch strikes in about two out of every three at-bats.
* They mixed up their pitches and threw any pitch on any count.
* They mixed up their locations--up, down, outside, inside.
* They pitched to contact. There were many 11- and 12-pitch innings.
* They had excellent control and issued very few walks. At least 70 percent of Strasburg's pitches were strikes and both Peacock and Milone also had good control.
Jordan Zimmermann was also pitching well when management shut him down in September. John Lannan is a much better starting pitcher than his record shows. He got terrible run support.
If Peacock and Milone pan out, I can envision a strong starting rotation of Strasburg, Zimmermann, Lannan, Peacock, and Milone.
The Nats already have one of the best bullpens in the majors. Tom Gorzelanny has worked out well in the long-relief role, Todd Coffey has become the go-to stopper, Henry Rodriguez shuts down the opponent's offense in the seventh inning by consistently throwing 100+ mph fastballs, and as for setup man Tyler Clippard and closer Drew Storen, they were lights out all year. Get the ball to Rodriguez with a lead and you've now shortened your opponent's game to six innings.
The team's main weakness is in its offense. Davey Johnson's regular starting lineup has good clutch hitters right down to the eighth spot, but Zimmerman and Morse are the only real long-ball threats. The conventional wisdom is that the Nats need to sign a power hitter and a front-of-the-rotation starting pitcher during the off-season. It would be great if they could do this, but with the potential that the team already has, they may not need to.
Here are my recommendations for how the Nats should spend their money:
1--Give Ryan Zimmeran whatever it takes to keep him a National for the rest of his playing career. He's the face of the franchise. He means to the Nats what Brooks Robinson and Cal Ripken meant to the Orioles, and he's a potential hall-of-famer as well.
2--Keep Davey Johnson as manager. He's a player's manager and has moved the team in the right direction.
3--Resign Rick Ankiel. He's one of best center fielders around.
4--Give Desmond, Espinosa, and Morse decent extensions to their contracts. They are the future of the Nats.
On the other hand, it's time to say a fond farewell to Livan Hernandez and Pudge Rodriguez. Pudge can still throw out runners but he's become a liability with his bat, and I'm not convinced that Livan has anything left in the tank.
I'm so encouraged that I can't "Wait "Till Next Year!"
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